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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway (2010)

by Dan Gardner(Favorite Author)

3.84 of 5 Votes: 1

ISBN

0771035195 (ISBN13: 9780771035197)

languge

English

genre

History & Biography

publisher

McClelland & Stewart

review 1: On the very day that I finished this book (February 9, 2014), the New York Times had a lead article called "The End of Snow?", sort of predicting that there would be no Winter Olympics in the near future because there would be no more snow. You know what's going to happen to the author of that article (not to mention the New York Times) when his prediction turns out to be idiotic and wrong?Nothing!Dan Gardner proves that there are no consequences for bad predictions. In fact, some famous purveyors of ridiculous predictions have gone on to fame and fortune, without being called to account for their failed efforts in the past. The media, Gardner demonstrates, rewards the confident, not the accurate.Please keep this in mind the next time that either side tries to convince ... moreyou that, either due to excessive government control or greedy capitalism, the world is coming to an end.We can only hope that Dan Gardner's book can bring some sanity to our public policy discussions. But frankly, I doubt it. And probably, so does Gardner.
review 2: This book was interesting. It brought to light for me something that was so obvious. It is true, many people make predictions but they are rarely correct. Even with this knowledge we still believe these predictors. This book made me think twice about believing this would be prophets. The only reason I did not give this book five stars out five is that there were a few a things I did not agree with. less

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