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The Predictioneer's Game: Using The Logic Of Brazen Self-Interest To See And Shape The Future (2009)

by Bruce Bueno De Mesquita(Favorite Author)

3.52 of 5 Votes: 4

ISBN

1400067871 (ISBN13: 9781400067879)

languge

English

genre

History & Biography

publisher

Random House

review 1: A few of the chapters lived up to my hopes for the book, but several were disappointing. Using game theory to predict behavior is a fascinating topic, in my opinion. The book had a strong opening as he explained some of the basics of game theory and applied it to some real life situations. He then began to explain how his prediction model worked, but after talking about how he gets information from experts about certain questions, this ends abruptly. I was hoping to learn a little more about his method of prediction, but this method remains a black box throughout the book and the remainder of the book deals with examples of how this technique has been used.Certainly, some of the examples are interesting. I liked learning about his technique of engineering outcomes in negot... moreiations, and how changing behavior in a negotiation could lead to better results. One of his examples in this area was fairly ridiculous, though. He gave an example of choosing a replacement for a CEO and how he was able to get a company to change its voting technique in order to get a certain CEO elected. The method he convinced the company to use was so absurd that I am shocked that anyone with half a brain agreed to use it. The method was incredibly biased to get a certain candidate chosen and I don't know why the rest of the candidates couldn't have seen that.Some other examples were good, though they were obviously cherry-picked to make his method seem more impressive than it really is. He has a chapter devoted to failed predictions, then really only brings up one of them and has a big excuse as to why it didn't work out. There's no way a method like this has nearly as much predictive power as he claims. I looked into his claim that the CIA said he had a 90% success rate and they were really only saying that he has approximately the same success rate as experts over a very limited sample set (not as impressive as the way he puts it).It's a thought-provoking book but could have been executed better. I think the author overstates the case for his methods and exaggerates their power, but I think there are places were such theories could be applied. I do wish he would have focused a little more on applying these ideas in our lives instead of having such a large section predicting the future of Pakistan and the Middle East. Overall, I'd still recommend it to anyone interested in this subject.
review 2: I like the cover. It's pretty. I know that's not important, and will likely change with future editions of the book, but still... I said it.This is the second of Bueno De Mesquita's books that I've read. I definitely appreciate that he attempted to make something more approachable to people with little-to-no background in political science (yup, that's me). But one of his ideas of "approachable" seems to be "witty," which I am of the opinion BDM is not. As an introduction to the concepts of his method of prediction, I thought Preditioneer's Game worked overall, but his attempts at humor fell flat. Not even thick enough for a pancake flat. They didn't make me more comfortable with the book and the concepts he presented. They made me want to cover my eyes and shake my head, which is not, by the way, an effective reading strategy. I would, honestly, have preferred something more dry and textbook. I'm not reading a PoliSci book because I think it'll be a hoot. I'm reading it to learn something. Don't get me wrong, I love when I can learn AND enjoy the occasional witticism (Tom Siegfried's A Beautiful Math is an example of a book that effectively balanced both), but yeah... if it ain't actually funny, leave it be. less

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