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Global Catastrophes And Trends: The Next Fifty Years (2008)

by Vaclav Smil(Favorite Author)

3.9 of 5 Votes: 5

ISBN

0262195860 (ISBN13: 9780262195867)

languge

English

genre

Nonfiction

publisher

MIT Press

review 1: Fascinating analysis of trendsPredicting the future is still impossible, but science has gotten much better at forecasting it, at least to the extent that it is informed by statistics and probabilities. Vaclav Smil speaks the truth as he sees it, according to mathematical information and indications. For instance, he refutes the “peak oil” scenario, but asserts that society’s transition to an economy that is less reliant on fossil fuel is long overdue, environmentally and politically. Smil predicted the financial meltdown and the flu pandemic, so clearly he’s on to something. He delves into a variety of issues in this analysis of trends and calamities, from the economic decline of the U.S. to conflicts in Muslim countries, the aging of many national populations and... more the depletion of essential ecosystems. getAbstract recommends this fascinating account of the future as seen through the cold eye of a statistician.
review 2: goes over catastrophes (meteors, volcanoes, world wars) and trends (climate change in particular) that could have very meaningful consequences. The guy is super smart and approaches issues from a multidisciplinary viewpoint that is second to none. Most interesting idea from the book - the inherent predictability of war (or at least the outbreak of war), i.e. they're going to happen on average so often over a certain time period - causes can always be found later. less

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