Rate this book

Baseball Prospectus (2014)

by Baseball Prospectus(Favorite Author)

4.27 of 5 Votes: 1

ISBN

1620457903 (ISBN13: 9781620457900)

languge

English

genre

Nonfiction

publisher

John Wiley & Sons

review 1: Nobody reads the Prospectus because of a review--either it's on your list or it isn't--but I wanted to chip in with a brief complaint about this year's version. I'm pretty sure this is the first time the Prospectus has gone to by-lined team essays. On the one hand, why not? On the other, the change appears to have contributed to a slightly egotistical style in a fair number of the essays--writers writing cutesy instead of smart. (I'm a Pirate fan and the Pirate essay is a prime offender.) Noticing that made me think a bit more about a shift that's crept in over the past few years. When I first started reading the Prospectus, I encountered quite a bit of writing that changed my perception of players in interesting and (from a fantasy baseball perspective) useful ways.... more Increasingly, the center of gravity of the essays has shifted from the field to the front office; I'd guess that at least half of this year's essays focus on how general managers go about building winning teams. That's interesting and relevant, but, for me and I'd guess a majority of baseball fans, it's secondary. I'm sure that part of this has to do with the fact that the numbers guys have made a real impact on baseball and that they're focusing on the parts of the story which advertise them best to potential employers in front offices. The individual player notes and the stats are still what they were, so it's not like this year's Prospectus was a bust, but I'm docking it a star in hopes that future editions will shift their attention back to the field.
review 2: I really enjoy this volume's arrival each year. It is filled with sabermetric analysis. Statistics beyond ERA, batting average, slugging percentage, etc. add a deeper dimension to sensing how well a player did. Also enjoyable is PECOTA, a system to project a player's performance in the upcoming season--in this case 2014.Normally, I immediately go to see how my favored team, the Chicago White Sox, is represented here. Last year was not a good year, as the statistics show (1st in unearned runs allowed, # 1 is fewest runs scored) and their talent cupboard (major and minor league) and their finances and management rate 29th in baseball. Not auspicious for the coming season.The player by player analyses are always interesting, and I especially like the projections. For instance, Adam Dunn. A hitter with a lot of power (let's forget a dreadful 2011) and a low average (the last three years: .159, .204, .219). 2014? A .214 batting average and 28 home runs. Not sure the home runs counter the miserable projected batting average. There is a 0% chance he will improve his performance dramatically, a 22% chance of improvement, only a 7% chance of a collapse (major decline), and a 17% chance of attrition (having performance decline--but not dramatically). Paul Konerko has had a career that is worthy of appreciation. However, he has been slowing down. Last year--a .244 batting average, just 12 home runes, and just 54 RBIs. A career in decline. This will be his final year. Projections? 19 homers, 68 RBIs, and a .269 batting average--a mild comeback from last year. We shall see what actually happens.Pitching? The projection is for Chris Sale, a terrific pitcher by a variety of statistics, to have some problems winning. He is projected at 11-7 (last year, he had as fine year by most metrics, but was only 11-14 in wins and losses, due to a lack of support). He is projected to have a 2.70 ERA.And on it goes, team after team.Each year, this book brings me smiles as I look at team after team and wonder how the projections actually play out. less

Download links for: Baseball Prospectus

Advertising