On this special, early bird edition of Ballers Gamers & Sleepers, we will take an in depth look at the Thanksgiving day slate in the NFL.
It is important to remember that roster construction and overall game theory can change for a day limited to only three games. Unless you are an experienced DFS tournament player in the NFL Playoffs or Monday through Thursday slates, you may want to keep an open mind on some of the following potential tourney winners.
Thanksgiving Schedule
- 12:30 PM ET: Minnesota at Detroit Min -3 O/U 45
- 4:30 PM ET: LA Chargers at Dallas. LA -1 O/U 47
- 8:30 PM ET: NY Giants at Washington. Was -7 O/U 45
Ballers
- QB Kirk Cousins
If I was to start an NFL franchise today and was able to choose from any active QB, it would be none other than the Capitan himself. I’m sure many franchise owners share that enthusiasm, yet will likely have their hearts broken by another massive franchise tag this off season. Kirk faces a Giants pass defense that have defended nearly a league low 29 pass attempts per game over their last 3 games. However, those 29 attempts are averaging a league worst 9.4 yards and 13.8 yards per completion. The G Men are also known to give up splash plays in the secondary and hold a very high opponent passing touchdown percentage of 74%.
- RB Latavius Murray/Jerick McKinnon
From my favorite quarterback to my favorite RB tandem. Don’t worry about biases or gut feeling advice here though. I’ll tell you how this two headed monster gets it done this week. If you have followed the Vikings through social media at all this season, you would be quick to recognize that this bunch may be the most cohesive brotherhood in the league. After the loss of rookie RB Dalvin Cook, there couldn’t be a better backup plan than “Tay” and “The Jet”. A case can be made for each player in any lineup. I’m also in favor of the hedge play of both backs in the same lineup. Detroit has been getting beat in the red zone, almost exclusively, over the last 3 games by running backs. 75% of opponent touchdowns have come on the ground to backs like Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen, The Crow, and even Jamaal Williams. The Lions rushing defense is allowing a league worst 6.3 yards per attempt through the last few weeks as well. I like Murray to cash into the end zone at least once in Detroit. I like PlayerProfiler.com’s advanced metric darling Jerick McKinnon, at 6.3 targets per game over the last 4 games, to reach at least 2x value on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Elite Workout Metrics of Jerick McKinnon
- TE Vernon Davis
I think “Big Vern” has found his old man strength this season. We can forget about the matchup, as we know how the Giants have been defending the TE position. They actually kept a tight end out of the end zone last week for the first game this season. While still allowing over 100 yards to Travis Kelce. Davis, at 33, is averaging 16 yards per reception, highest among all tight ends. At 7.5 targets per game throughout the last 4, Mr. Davis is in a prime spot here. He will certainly be the TE chalk this week, but remember, it was Kelce in the winning tournament lineups this past sunday.
- WR Adam Thielen
This game is certainly setting up for a Vikings onslaught. That line at -3 is starting to look real intriguing. This guy wasn’t drafted in season long leagues as a baller but he has been the fantasy MVP so far for the month of November. He leads all pass catchers this month at 129 yards per game. With a 65% catch rate at 10.33 targets per game, you get the safest floor of any receiver on turkey day. His matchup is no secret either. Teams have been targeting the slot on the Detroit secondary all season. While Lions slot corner Quandre Diggs scores respectfully on PFF Player Grades at 80.7, we shouldn’t forget JuJu’s 97 yard bee line touchdown in Diggs’ coverage in week 8.
Gamers
- RB Samajae Perine
Who would typically be a sleeper in DFS, I’m not expecting many to sleep on this guy after a monster performance on Sunday in New Orleans. Perine will be carrying as close to a full load as a Washington RB has carried this season. Without the NFL’s premier pass catching back, Chris Thompson, it will be the rookie squaring up against a NY Giants defense allowing the leagues third highest 133 rushing ypg on the season.
- WR Sterling Shepard
Shepard is hopefully on the right side of questionable for this contest. He was not a participant in Tuesday’s or Wednesday’s practice and has been dealing with migraines since the week 10 game in San Francisco. If he plays, he will find himself in a smash spot Thursday against a beatable Washington defense. Since week 9, Washington has given up a immense 13 yards per completion. With 9 and 13 targets in his two games returning from injury, I like Shep to return value in the Thanksgiving night hammer.
- WR Stefon Diggs
If this game was played on a full slate, we may have gotten Diggs at a bit of a discount this week. The Maryland product has failed to deliver over 6 FD points in three of his last four active games. The Vikings play the early game this Thursday however, so it’s safe to assume moderate ownership. Daily players just love that instant gratification, climbing the leader boards early. I can’t argue this play though. Diggs is fixing to line up across from either DJ Hayden or Nevin Lawson. Two sub 50 grade corners, according to PFF. Stef also has been running up to 30% of his routes in the slot. Fellow Vikings WR Adam Thielen has scored in 3 straight games. The last time a Minnesota wideout scored in four straight was in 2011 by Percy Harvin. So odds may be in favor of Diggs to get back on the gravy train.
Sleepers
- RB Alfred Morris
The Chargers get so fired up about sacking quarterbacks every week, they forget about stopping the run. This is purely a matchup play, as LA is allowing a league high 139 rushing yards per game on the year.
- QB Dak Prescott to WR Cole Beasley
Do you remember Anquan Boldins’ big game last thanksgiving? Winning a Turkey Day tournament usually requires an unusual player. Due to Dak’s laughable 1.8 point performance in primetime last week, you will be rostering these two at very low ownership. I’d say Prescott actually has the highest upside out of these contests, as he has registered a league best 5 rushing TD’s this season. If Dak can stay upright, it should be Beasley, open in the holes of the predictable Chargers cover 3.
- WR Ryan Grant
With Terelle Pryor out of the mix, Grant will likely put his staggering 78% catch rate to good use from here on out. He will also be an odd man out Thursday night. Josh Doctson should be matching up with a quickly rejuvenated Janoris Jenkins and DRC covering Jamison Crowder.
Other Notable Plays
- Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen
Both safe plays in good matchups, yet high ownership.
- Evan Engram/Giants WR’s
We will have to wait for the status of Sterling Shepard on this one. If Shepard plays, the Giants passing game opens up, specifically for Evan Engram. If Shepard sits this one out, take your pick of which underwhelming NY WR you like best as a punt play. They’re all averaging 5 targets over the last 4 weeks. I would like Tavarres King running from the slot the most. Lewis and Rudolph could be outmatched by stellar cover corners Josh Norman and Quinton Dunbar.
Legend
- Ballers: High floor/high ceiling studs
- Gamers: Safe plays with good matchups
- Sleepers: High upside leverage plays
